Ecological impact: the noose tightens around the most polluting vehicles [1/2]

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Lucie Monnot

Content Marketing Manager

In cities, for last-mile delivery as well as long-distance transport, CO2 emission regulations are tightening and encouraging freight transport players to switch to low-carbon energy sources. But fleet renewal is slow. Against all odds, the Covid-19 crisis could accelerate the sector’s energy transition.

Sommaire

Source: FNTR / Centre interprofessionnel technique d’études de la pollution atmosphérique (CITEPA) – July 2020
 
Thanks to these efforts, and with the active contribution of manufacturers in both reducing fuel consumption and cutting pollutant emissions, 69% of the French truck fleet in circulation in 2018 complied with the Euro VI standard, the most stringent standard for pollutant emissions from heavy vehicles.
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The decarbonization challenge

Reducing short-term pollutants is one thing, but faced with the climate emergency, the priority is to reduce CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases due to their long-term and global impact. This is especially true for road transport (passengers and goods), which is responsible for 29% of emissions in France (2019). Of these 29%, 6% are attributable to trucks and 6% to light commercial vehicles.
 
The CO2 equivalent generated per tonne-km transported has dropped by around 15% since 1990. But it has not escaped anyone’s notice that road freight transport has increased considerably over the past 30 years. As a result, CO2 emissions have also increased (+6% between 1990 and 2019 for trucks, +35% for light commercial vehicles). Since freight transport is not set to decrease in volume in the short or medium term, particularly due to the explosion of e-commerce, the only way to reduce CO2 emissions is to tackle the decarbonization of vehicle fleets. The challenge is enormous given the size and state of the fleet as of January 1, 2020 (source: SDES 2020):
 
The heavy goods vehicle fleet numbers just over 600,000 vehicles (including 50.8% trucks and 36.2% road tractors), and the light commercial vehicle fleet just over 6 million, the majority of which are vans (78%).
 
50% of heavy goods vehicles are less than 6 years old, but there are significant differences between trucks and road tractors. While the median age of the latter is 3 years, it is 9 years for the former, with the oldest 10% of road tractors being over 11 years old compared to 22 years for trucks.
Most importantly, 95% of light commercial vehicles and 99% of heavy goods vehicles still run on diesel.
To say the least, the energy reality of the fleet has nothing to do with what is constantly put forward and presented as almost a given, namely: the widespread adoption of electric powertrains and the imminent shift to hydrogen. We are very far from that, as shown by the evolution of powertrains and fuel types since 2011.

CNG, the first alternative to diesel?

Settorizzazione e Intelligenza Artificiale come Nomadia Territory Manager rivoluziona l’efficienza dei team sul campo
It is clear that the only category that has grown strongly over the past 10 years is CNG (Compressed Natural Gas) and other gas fuels: +837% for trucks and +2,300% for road tractors. This is very encouraging, except that the carbon performance of fossil-origin CNG is far from satisfactory. That of bio-CNG (derived from biomass) is more so, at -80% CO2 compared to diesel. However, one must be certain of being able to supply a significantly larger fleet with biomethane, which does not appear to be the case (source: Carbone4).
 
In any case, CNG and its variants (LNG, compressed natural gas) are attracting a number of transport operators. In 2019, for example, the Bills-Deroo Group invested in its first 3 compressed natural gas trucks. Its CEO, Jimmy Bils, considers the experience positive. However, he points out “a very significant additional purchase cost, as we are talking about 30% to 35% more than a conventional engine. Maintenance is also more expensive. With a diesel, you service it every 80,000 or even 100,000 km, whereas with gas technology, you are required to service it every 20,000 or 30,000 km. That means the truck is off the road for half a day or a full day much more often throughout the year.”
On the other hand, in terms of per-kilometre operating cost excluding maintenance, compressed natural gas is interesting: “With gas, we consume around 15% less than a diesel, and gas is also cheaper. So overall, we save between 15% and 20% per kilometre on fuel.” Hence his conclusion: “If you are only looking for savings, CNG is not the right choice. For us, this decision is part of a genuinely eco-responsible approach: we emit less CO2 and above all fewer fine particles, which are a scourge for us and for nature.”
Although the growth of CNG trucks and tractors has been spectacular over the past 10 years, CNG’s share remains extremely small: 0.84% in 2020 for road tractors and 0.44% for trucks. It is even smaller in the light commercial vehicle category (0.05%).
Gas technology will continue to grow, but it has no chance, even in the medium term, of overtaking diesel and making a significant impact on the carbon footprint of freight transport. What about electric powertrains and hydrogen, which are talked about so much? Will these alternatives to fossil fuels live up to their promises? Are all the conditions in place for them to take hold?

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